Market-based Recommendation: Agents that Compete for Consumer Attention

The amount of attention space available for recommending suppliers to consumers on e-commerce sites is typically limited. We present a competitive distributed recommendation mechanism based on adaptive software agents for efficiently allocating the 'consumer attention space', or banners. In the example of an electronic shopping mall, the task is delegated to the individual shops, each of which evaluates the information that is available about the consumer and his or her interests (e.g. keywords, product queries, and available parts of a profile). Shops make a monetary bid in an auction where a limited amount of 'consumer attention space' for the arriving consumer is sold. Each shop is represented by a software agent that bids for each consumer. This allows shops to rapidly adapt their bidding strategy to focus on consumers interested in their offerings. For various basic and simple models for on-line consumers, shops, and profiles, we demonstrate the feasibility of our system by evolutionary simulations as in the field of agent-based computational economics (ACE). We also develop adaptive software agents that learn bidding strategies, based on neural networks and strategy exploration heuristics. Furthermore, we address the commercial and technological advantages of this distributed market-based approach. The mechanism we describe is not limited to the example of the electronic shopping mall, but can easily be extended to other domains

Inflammatory parameters predict etiologic patterns but do not allow for individual prediction of etiology in patients with CAP – Results from the German competence network CAPNETZ

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation of inflammatory markers procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and leukocyte count (WBC) with microbiological etiology of CAP.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We enrolled 1337 patients (62 ± 18 y, 45% f) with proven CAP. Extensive microbiological workup was performed. In all patients PCT, CRP, WBC and CRB-65 score were determined. Patients were classified according to microbial diagnosis and CRB-65 score.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In patients with typical bacterial CAP, levels of PCT, CRP and WBC were significantly higher compared to CAP of atypical or viral etiology. There were no significant differences in PCT, CRP and WBC in patients with atypical or viral etiology of CAP. In contrast to CRP and WBC, PCT markedly increased with severity of CAP as measured by CRB-65 score (p < 0.0001). In ROC analysis for discrimination of patients with CRB-65 scores > 1, AUC for PCT was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.71), which was higher compared to CRP and WBC (p < 0.0001). CRB-65, PCT, CRP and WBC were higher (p < 0.0001) in hospitalised patients in comparison to outpatients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>PCT, CRP and WBC are highest in typical bacterial etiology in CAP but do not allow individual prediction of etiology. In contrast to CRP and WBC, PCT is useful in severity assessment of CAP.</p

How Gibbs distributions may naturally arise from synaptic adaptation mechanisms. A model-based argumentation

This paper addresses two questions in the context of neuronal networks dynamics, using methods from dynamical systems theory and statistical physics: (i) How to characterize the statistical properties of sequences of action potentials ("spike trains") produced by neuronal networks ? and; (ii) what are the effects of synaptic plasticity on these statistics ? We introduce a framework in which spike trains are associated to a coding of membrane potential trajectories, and actually, constitute a symbolic coding in important explicit examples (the so-called gIF models). On this basis, we use the thermodynamic formalism from ergodic theory to show how Gibbs distributions are natural probability measures to describe the statistics of spike trains, given the empirical averages of prescribed quantities. As a second result, we show that Gibbs distributions naturally arise when considering "slow" synaptic plasticity rules where the characteristic time for synapse adaptation is quite longer than the characteristic time for neurons dynamics.Comment: 39 pages, 3 figure

Oldest Known Eucalyptus Macrofossils Are from South America

The evolutionary history of Eucalyptus and the eucalypts, the larger clade of seven genera including Eucalyptus that today have a natural distribution almost exclusively in Australasia, is poorly documented from the fossil record. Little physical evidence exists bearing on the ancient geographical distributions or morphologies of plants within the clade. Herein, we introduce fossil material of Eucalyptus from the early Eocene (ca. 51.9 Ma) Laguna del Hunco paleoflora of Chubut Province, Argentina; specimens include multiple leaves, infructescences, and dispersed capsules, several flower buds, and a single flower. Morphological similarities that relate the fossils to extant eucalypts include leaf shape, venation, and epidermal oil glands; infructescence structure; valvate capsulate fruits; and operculate flower buds. The presence of a staminophore scar on the fruits links them to Eucalyptus, and the presence of a transverse scar on the flower buds indicates a relationship to Eucalyptus subgenus Symphyomyrtus. Phylogenetic analyses of morphological data alone and combined with aligned sequence data from a prior study including 16 extant eucalypts, one outgroup, and a terminal representing the fossils indicate that the fossils are nested within Eucalyptus. These are the only illustrated Eucalyptus fossils that are definitively Eocene in age, and the only conclusively identified extant or fossil eucalypts naturally occurring outside of Australasia and adjacent Mindanao. Thus, these fossils indicate that the evolution of the eucalypt group is not constrained to a single region. Moreover, they strengthen the taxonomic connections between the Laguna del Hunco paleoflora and extant subtropical and tropical Australasia, one of the three major ecologic-geographic elements of the Laguna del Hunco paleoflora. The age and affinities of the fossils also indicate that Eucalyptus subgenus Symphyomyrtus is older than previously supposed. Paleoecological data indicate that the Patagonian Eucalyptus dominated volcanically disturbed areas adjacent to standing rainforest surrounding an Eocene caldera lake

State-Space Analysis of Time-Varying Higher-Order Spike Correlation for Multiple Neural Spike Train Data

Precise spike coordination between the spiking activities of multiple neurons is suggested as an indication of coordinated network activity in active cell assemblies. Spike correlation analysis aims to identify such cooperative network activity by detecting excess spike synchrony in simultaneously recorded multiple neural spike sequences. Cooperative activity is expected to organize dynamically during behavior and cognition; therefore currently available analysis techniques must be extended to enable the estimation of multiple time-varying spike interactions between neurons simultaneously. In particular, new methods must take advantage of the simultaneous observations of multiple neurons by addressing their higher-order dependencies, which cannot be revealed by pairwise analyses alone. In this paper, we develop a method for estimating time-varying spike interactions by means of a state-space analysis. Discretized parallel spike sequences are modeled as multi-variate binary processes using a log-linear model that provides a well-defined measure of higher-order spike correlation in an information geometry framework. We construct a recursive Bayesian filter/smoother for the extraction of spike interaction parameters. This method can simultaneously estimate the dynamic pairwise spike interactions of multiple single neurons, thereby extending the Ising/spin-glass model analysis of multiple neural spike train data to a nonstationary analysis. Furthermore, the method can estimate dynamic higher-order spike interactions. To validate the inclusion of the higher-order terms in the model, we construct an approximation method to assess the goodness-of-fit to spike data. In addition, we formulate a test method for the presence of higher-order spike correlation even in nonstationary spike data, e.g., data from awake behaving animals. The utility of the proposed methods is tested using simulated spike data with known underlying correlation dynamics. Finally, we apply the methods to neural spike data simultaneously recorded from the motor cortex of an awake monkey and demonstrate that the higher-order spike correlation organizes dynamically in relation to a behavioral demand

CuBIC: cumulant based inference of higher-order correlations in massively parallel spike trains

Recent developments in electrophysiological and optical recording techniques enable the simultaneous observation of large numbers of neurons. A meaningful interpretation of the resulting multivariate data, however, presents a serious challenge. In particular, the estimation of higher-order correlations that characterize the cooperative dynamics of groups of neurons is impeded by the combinatorial explosion of the parameter space. The resulting requirements with respect to sample size and recording time has rendered the detection of coordinated neuronal groups exceedingly difficult. Here we describe a novel approach to infer higher-order correlations in massively parallel spike trains that is less susceptible to these problems. Based on the superimposed activity of all recorded neurons, the cumulant-based inference of higher-order correlations (CuBIC) presented here exploits the fact that the absence of higher-order correlations imposes also strong constraints on correlations of lower order. Thus, estimates of only few lower-order cumulants suffice to infer higher-order correlations in the population. As a consequence, CuBIC is much better compatible with the constraints of in vivo recordings than previous approaches, which is shown by a systematic analysis of its parameter dependence

The diagnostic accuracy of US, CT, MRI and 1H-MRS for the evaluation of hepatic steatosis compared with liver biopsy: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To meta-analyse the diagnostic accuracy of US, CT, MRI and (1)H-MRS for the evaluation of hepatic steatosis. METHODS: From a comprehensive literature search in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane (up to November 2009), articles were selected that investigated the diagnostic performance imaging techniques for evaluating hepatic steatosis with histopathology as the reference standard. Cut-off values for the presence of steatosis on liver biopsy were subdivided into four groups: (1) >0, >2 and >5% steatosis; (2) >10, >15 and >20%; (3) >25, >30 and >33%; (4) >50, >60 and >66%. Per group, summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity were calculated. The natural-logarithm of the diagnostic odds ratio (lnDOR) was used as a single indicator of test performance. RESULTS: 46 articles were included. Mean sensitivity estimates for subgroups were 73.3-90.5% (US), 46.1-72.0% (CT), 82.0-97.4% (MRI) and 72.7-88.5% ((1)H-MRS). Mean specificity ranges were 69.6-85.2% (US), 88.1-94.6% (CT), 76.1-95.3% (MRI) and 92.0-95.7% ((1)H-MRS). Overall performance (lnDOR) of MRI and (1)H-MRS was better than that for US and CT for all subgroups, with significant differences in groups 1 and 2. CONCLUSION: MRI and (1)H-MRS can be considered techniques of choice for accurate evaluation of hepatic steatosi

Robustness of Learning That Is Based on Covariance-Driven Synaptic Plasticity

It is widely believed that learning is due, at least in part, to long-lasting modifications of the strengths of synapses in the brain. Theoretical studies have shown that a family of synaptic plasticity rules, in which synaptic changes are driven by covariance, is particularly useful for many forms of learning, including associative memory, gradient estimation, and operant conditioning. Covariance-based plasticity is inherently sensitive. Even a slight mistuning of the parameters of a covariance-based plasticity rule is likely to result in substantial changes in synaptic efficacies. Therefore, the biological relevance of covariance-based plasticity models is questionable. Here, we study the effects of mistuning parameters of the plasticity rule in a decision making model in which synaptic plasticity is driven by the covariance of reward and neural activity. An exact covariance plasticity rule yields Herrnstein's matching law. We show that although the effect of slight mistuning of the plasticity rule on the synaptic efficacies is large, the behavioral effect is small. Thus, matching behavior is robust to mistuning of the parameters of the covariance-based plasticity rule. Furthermore, the mistuned covariance rule results in undermatching, which is consistent with experimentally observed behavior. These results substantiate the hypothesis that approximate covariance-based synaptic plasticity underlies operant conditioning. However, we show that the mistuning of the mean subtraction makes behavior sensitive to the mistuning of the properties of the decision making network. Thus, there is a tradeoff between the robustness of matching behavior to changes in the plasticity rule and its robustness to changes in the properties of the decision making network